Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1407SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
AA 1407 · PHL → AUS
departs 8:35 AM ET · arrives 11:26 AM CT
Forecast issued Thu 6:00 AM ET · 51h before departure
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
24%chance · ±1 pts– · 24h
HOW SURE WE AREModerate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.