AA 1441 · RDU → PHL

departs 3:03 PM ET · arrives 4:40 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 6:00 AM ET · 9h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late

↑ 3pm departures from RDU are often late

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

Weather at each end

RDU (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.17 in

PHL (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1441 · RDU → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?