Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1470 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

AA 1470 · MSY → DFW

departs 7:42 AM CT · arrives 9:35 AM CT

Forecast issued Wed 9:00 PM ET · 60h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±2 pts +20 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ DFW is prone to delays

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at MSY that day

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 7am departures from MSY are usually not late

Weather at each end

MSY (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.93 in

DFW (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.20 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1470 · MSY → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?