AA 149 · JFK → SFO

took off 11:22 AM ET · expected to land 1:53 PM PT (scheduled 11:12 AM ET → 2:21 PM PT)

Forecast issued Sat 1:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SFO?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 35% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

Weather at each end

JFK (origin) Gusts25 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 149 · JFK → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?