Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1563 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

AA 1563 · ORD → BOS

departs 11:00 AM CT · arrives 2:38 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 62h before departure

Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?

17% chance · ±2 pts −7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BOS?

On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 37% of the time recently

↑ 11am departures from ORD are often late

↑ Arrivals into BOS at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ BOS usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BOS (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling10,667 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1563 · ORD → BOS

Odds over time

How late will it get to BOS?