Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1564 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

AA 1564 · PHX → BOS

departs 8:42 AM MT · arrives 4:55 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 7:00 AM ET · 53h before departure

Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BOS?

On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into BOS at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 20% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BOS

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BOS (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling11,333 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1564 · PHX → BOS

Odds over time

How late will it get to BOS?