Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 164 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow

AA 164 · HNL → LAX

departs 2:00 PM HT · arrives 10:36 PM PT

Forecast issued Fri 6:00 AM ET · 38h before departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±2 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAX?

On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into LAX at that hour are often late

↑ LAX is prone to delays

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

LAX (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 164 · HNL → LAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAX?