Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1650 LANDED 12:10 PM CT, ~6 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3 Yesterday

AA 1650 · DFW → MSY

took off 10:38 AM CT · landed 12:10 PM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 10h after departure

Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?

73% chance · ±0 pts +25 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 10am departures from DFW are often late

↓ Arrivals into MSY at that hour are usually not late

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.22 in

MSY (destination) Gusts30 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility0.75 mi Precip1.90 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1650 · DFW → MSY

Odds over time