Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1685 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

AA 1685 · DFW → PHX

departs 12:33 PM CT · arrives 1:00 PM MT

Forecast issued Wed 7:00 PM ET · 66h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±0 pts +14 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ DFW is prone to delays

↑ 12pm departures from DFW are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.32 in

PHX (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1685 · DFW → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?