AA 1692 · DFW → MCO

took off 1:56 PM CT · expected to land 5:18 PM ET (scheduled 1:37 PM CT → 5:25 PM ET)

Forecast issued Sat 2:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

12% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MCO?

LIVE

On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ Thunderstorms forecast at MCO that day

↑ 1pm departures from DFW are often late

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.45 in

MCO (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling4,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.06 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1692 · DFW → MCO

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCO?