Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1765 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

AA 1765 · PHX → RNO

departs 8:38 PM MT · arrives 10:25 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 50h before departure

Arrive at RNO more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±4 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to RNO?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8pm departures from PHX are often late

↑ Other factors

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

RNO (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1765 · PHX → RNO

Odds over time

How late will it get to RNO?