Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1786 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow

AA 1786 · DFW → DTW

departs 3:17 PM CT · arrives 6:59 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 18h before departure

Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±2 pts +9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DTW?

On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
25%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.6 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ 3pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ This flight has been late 42% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.26 in

DTW (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1786 · DFW → DTW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DTW?