Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1790 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow

AA 1790 · DTW → PHX

departs 5:57 PM ET · arrives 7:08 PM MT

Forecast issued Fri 2:00 AM ET · 40h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±1 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 5pm departures from DTW are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ DTW usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

DTW (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility7 mi Precipnone

PHX (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1790 · DTW → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?