AA 1792 · JAC → DFW

departs 4:27 PM MT · arrives 8:19 PM CT

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

58% chance · ±0 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
41%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
11%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JAC

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

JAC (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DFW (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.22 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1792 · JAC → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?