Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1795 LANDED 8:00 PM CT, ~33 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3 Yesterday

AA 1795 · LGA → ORD

took off 7:02 PM ET · landed 8:00 PM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

43% chance · ±1 pts +17 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

ORD (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1795 · LGA → ORD

Odds over time