Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1801 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

AA 1801 · DFW → ELP

departs 8:30 AM CT · arrives 9:19 AM MT

Forecast issued Thu 9:00 PM ET · 36h before departure

Arrive at ELP more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±9 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ELP?

On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ DFW is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 19% of the time recently

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Arrivals into ELP at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.52 in

ELP (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1801 · DFW → ELP

Odds over time

How late will it get to ELP?