AA 1822 · DFW → SBA

took off 10:26 AM CT · landed 11:21 AM PT (scheduled 10:11 AM CT → 11:45 AM PT)

Forecast issued Sat 2:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at SBA more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to SBA?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 10am departures from DFW are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SBA

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.45 in

SBA (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1822 · DFW → SBA

Odds over time

How late did it get to SBA?