Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1883 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

AA 1883 · DFW → JAC

departs 1:12 PM CT · arrives 2:59 PM MT

Forecast issued Thu 12:00 PM ET · 50h before departure

Arrive at JAC more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±3 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to JAC?

On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ This flight has been late 33% of the time recently

↑ 1pm departures from DFW are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JAC

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.44 in

JAC (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1883 · DFW → JAC

Odds over time

How late will it get to JAC?