Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1913 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

AA 1913 · IAH → ORD

departs 6:42 PM CT · arrives 9:55 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 1:00 PM ET · 55h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

38% chance · ±6 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.8 in of rain forecast at IAH that day

↑ This flight has been late 43% of the time recently

↑ 6pm departures from IAH are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling3,900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.78 in

ORD (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1913 · IAH → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?