Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1913 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

AA 1913 · ORD → IAH

departs 3:07 PM CT · arrives 6:01 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 7:00 AM ET · 57h before departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±12 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAH?

On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.6 in of rain forecast at IAH that day

↑ This flight has been late 40% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into IAH at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

IAH (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling1,833 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.65 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1913 · ORD → IAH

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAH?