AA 1939 · DFW → SNA

took off 10:11 AM CT · landed 10:46 AM PT (scheduled 9:41 AM CT → 10:58 AM PT)

Forecast issued Sat 3:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±1 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to SNA?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 9am departures from DFW are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SNA

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.40 in

SNA (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1939 · DFW → SNA

Odds over time

How late did it get to SNA?