AA 1961 · SAT → DFW

departs 4:25 PM CT · arrives 5:50 PM CT

Forecast issued Sat 4:00 AM ET · 13h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

64% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
32%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
25%
Over 2 hours late
12%
Cancelled
10%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at DFW that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ SAT usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

SAT (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.03 in

DFW (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.30 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1961 · SAT → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?