Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2002 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

AA 2002 · JFK → LAS

departs 9:00 AM ET · arrives 11:34 AM PT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 35h before departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±1 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAS?

On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↑ 9am departures from JFK are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

Weather at each end

JFK (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LAS (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2002 · JFK → LAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAS?