Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2034 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

AA 2034 · DFW → ELP

departs 6:30 PM CT · arrives 7:19 PM MT

Forecast issued Thu 9:00 PM ET · 46h before departure

Arrive at ELP more than 15 minutes late?

60% chance · ±17 pts +9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ELP?

On time or early
39%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
15%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 6pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ This flight has been late 31% of the time recently

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ELP

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.52 in

ELP (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2034 · DFW → ELP

Odds over time

How late will it get to ELP?