Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2045 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow

AA 2045 · PHL → SFO

departs 4:30 PM ET · arrives 7:42 PM PT

Forecast issued Fri 1:00 PM ET · 28h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

17% chance · ±2 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 33% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ 4pm departures from PHL are often late

↓ Cloud base down to 400 ft forecast at SFO that day

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

SFO (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility6 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2045 · PHL → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?