AA 2078 · SMF → DFW

departs 2:16 PM PT · arrives 7:48 PM CT

Forecast issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 5h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

58% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
42%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
24%
1–2 hours late
17%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

Weather at each end

SMF (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DFW (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.38 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2078 · SMF → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?