Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2221 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

AA 2221 · ATL → LAX

departs 4:55 PM ET · arrives 6:42 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 1:00 PM ET · 52h before departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±9 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAX?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at ATL

↑ This flight has been late 31% of the time recently

↑ 4pm departures from ATL are often late

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ ATL usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

ATL (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling3,800 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.17 in

LAX (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2221 · ATL → LAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAX?