Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2228 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow

AA 2228 · DFW → SFO

departs 8:49 PM CT · arrives 10:33 PM PT

Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 27h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±7 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ This flight has been late 46% of the time recently

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, 0.6 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.61 in

SFO (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2228 · DFW → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?