Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2229 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

AA 2229 · DFW → OMA

departs 2:28 PM CT · arrives 4:18 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 7:00 AM ET · 56h before departure

Arrive at OMA more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to OMA?

On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 40% of the time recently

↑ 2pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 1,200 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↓ OMA usually runs smoothly

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.35 in

OMA (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling4,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2229 · DFW → OMA

Odds over time

How late will it get to OMA?