Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2275 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

AA 2275 · ORD → PBI

departs 1:51 PM CT · arrives 6:03 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 9:00 PM ET · 42h before departure

Arrive at PBI more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±2 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PBI?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at PBI

↑ 1pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ This flight has been late 28% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PBI (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.17 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2275 · ORD → PBI

Odds over time

How late will it get to PBI?