Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2277 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

AA 2277 · PHL → BNA

departs 9:30 PM ET · arrives 10:46 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 12:00 PM ET · 58h before departure

Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BNA?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 33% of the time recently

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into BNA at that hour are often late

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling2,400 ft Visibility9.33333 mi Precip0.07 in

BNA (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.4 mi Precip0.07 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2277 · PHL → BNA

Odds over time

How late will it get to BNA?