Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2293 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow

AA 2293 · LAX → PHX

departs 8:41 PM PT · arrives 10:09 PM MT

Forecast issued Fri 4:00 PM ET · 32h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±1 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 8pm departures from LAX are often late

↑ This flight has been late 24% of the time recently

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHX (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2293 · LAX → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?