Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2356 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow

AA 2356 · PHL → DFW

departs 4:22 PM ET · arrives 7:09 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 11:00 PM ET · 41h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±6 pts +9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.5 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling5,333 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

DFW (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.52 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2356 · PHL → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?