Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 238 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

AA 238 · LAX → JFK

departs 10:11 AM PT · arrives 6:52 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 8:00 PM ET · 65h before departure

Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±3 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to JFK?

On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10am departures from LAX are often late

↑ This flight has been late 28% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into JFK at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

JFK (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling5,867 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 238 · LAX → JFK

Odds over time

How late will it get to JFK?