AA 2400 · ORD → MDT

took off 7:20 PM CT · landed 9:32 PM ET (scheduled 7:02 PM CT → 10:16 PM ET)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at MDT more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts −6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to MDT?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 7pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MDT

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MDT (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2400 · ORD → MDT

Odds over time

How late did it get to MDT?