Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2403 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow

AA 2403 · RDU → PHL

departs 1:05 PM ET · arrives 2:34 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 6:00 AM ET · 31h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±2 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ PHL is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 26% of the time recently

↑ 1pm departures from RDU are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

RDU (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.15 in

PHL (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling5,333 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2403 · RDU → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?