AA 2430 · DFW → MCI

departs 7:18 AM CT · arrives 9:05 AM CT

Forecast issued Sat 1:00 AM ET · 7h before departure

Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MCI?

On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ DFW is busy at that time

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Arrivals into MCI at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.25 in

MCI (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2430 · DFW → MCI

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCI?