Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2438 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3 Yesterday

AA 2438 · RSW → DFW

departs 2:25 PM ET · arrives 4:26 PM CT

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

56% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
41%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
28%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
9%
Cancelled
7%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ 0.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at RSW that day

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

RSW (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DFW (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.22 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2438 · RSW → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?