Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2461SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
AA 2461 · PHX → SAN
departs 7:34 AM MT · arrives 8:51 AM PT
Forecast issued Thu 4:00 PM ET · 43h before departure
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
16%chance · ±3 pts+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE AREModerate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.