Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2489 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

AA 2489 · PHL → SAT

departs 10:32 AM ET · arrives 1:30 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 7:00 PM ET · 40h before departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±1 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAT?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 800 ft forecast at SAT that day

↑ This flight has been late 17% of the time recently

↑ SAT is prone to delays

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

SAT (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.22 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2489 · PHL → SAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAT?