Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2491 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow

AA 2491 · DFW → STL

departs 4:42 PM CT · arrives 6:32 PM CT

Forecast issued Fri 12:00 PM ET · 30h before departure

Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±6 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to STL?

On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ This flight has been late 37% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at STL

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.32 in

STL (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2491 · DFW → STL

Odds over time

How late will it get to STL?