Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2500 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

AA 2500 · PHL → DEN

departs 8:03 PM ET · arrives 10:25 PM MT

Forecast issued Thu 7:00 AM ET · 61h before departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DEN?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 35% of the time recently

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling3,400 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

DEN (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2500 · PHL → DEN

Odds over time

How late will it get to DEN?