Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2504 LANDED 1:06 PM CT, ~12 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3 Yesterday

AA 2504 · IAH → ORD

took off 11:08 AM CT · landed 1:06 PM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 10h after departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 28% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

ORD (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2504 · IAH → ORD

Odds over time