Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2512 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow

AA 2512 · IAH → DFW

departs 2:04 PM CT · arrives 3:30 PM CT

Forecast issued Fri 4:00 PM ET · 23h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

51% chance · ±6 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
46%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
23%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
11%
Cancelled
5%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ This flight has been late 42% of the time recently

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.12 in

DFW (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.61 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2512 · IAH → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?