Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2513 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

AA 2513 · DFW → LGA

departs 4:49 PM CT · arrives 9:29 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 12:00 PM ET · 54h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

34% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ 4pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ This flight has been late 38% of the time recently

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.44 in

LGA (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling4,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2513 · DFW → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?