AA 2581 · MKE → DFW

departs 12:20 PM CT · arrives 2:54 PM CT

Forecast issued Sat 7:00 AM ET · 6h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MKE

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

MKE (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DFW (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.23 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2581 · MKE → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?