Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2634 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow

AA 2634 · SMF → DFW

departs 2:55 PM PT · arrives 8:28 PM CT

Forecast issued Fri 11:00 AM ET · 31h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
20%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↑ DFW is prone to delays

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

Weather at each end

SMF (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DFW (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.32 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2634 · SMF → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?