Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2659 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

AA 2659 · SNA → PHX

departs 4:30 PM PT · arrives 5:56 PM MT

Forecast issued Thu 8:00 PM ET · 48h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±1 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ SNA is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SNA (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHX (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2659 · SNA → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?