Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2684 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow

AA 2684 · DFW → SNA

departs 12:23 PM CT · arrives 1:31 PM PT

Forecast issued Fri 9:00 PM ET · 16h before departure

Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±2 pts +10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SNA?

On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.6 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ 12pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ DFW is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SNA

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.26 in

SNA (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2684 · DFW → SNA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SNA?