Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2747 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

AA 2747 · DFW → BWI

departs 7:01 AM CT · arrives 11:08 AM ET

Forecast issued Thu 6:00 PM ET · 38h before departure

Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±1 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BWI?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ This flight has been late 28% of the time recently

↑ DFW is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Arrivals into BWI at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.35 in

BWI (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling6,333 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.20 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2747 · DFW → BWI

Odds over time

How late will it get to BWI?